Review of Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends

An NEPC Review funded by the Great Lakes Center

Key Takeaway: Recent AEI report successfully identifies patterns in student performance but falls short in explaining the causes behind them.

GRAND RAPIDS, MI (APRIL 24, 2025) - A recent American Enterprise Institute report does a good job of identifying and describing long-term trends in student performance using national and international assessment data. However, a review finds that the report then falls short in its attempts to analyze and understand the factors driving these trends.

In his review of Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends ,Chris Domaleski of the National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment explains that the report identifies four major trends: (1) student performance peaked in the early 2010s before declining, (2) lower-performing students have seen the sharpest declines, (3) achievement gaps in the U.S. are widening more than in other countries, and (4) similar declines appear in adult literacy and numeracy scores. The report also attempts to challenge implicit theories, such as the idea that recent declines are solely due to the pandemic or that all students are affected uniformly.

While Dr. Domaleski praises the report for effectively highlighting these key trends, he points to problems with the report’s analysis. He notes, for example, that the report overlooks important data sources that could provide a more comprehensive picture. It also fails to account for uncertainty or offer guidance on identifying meaningful differences. Finally, its effort to "pressure test" possible explanations is underdeveloped-its theories lack depth and fail to engage with established research on causal inference.

Though the report serves as a useful starting point for discussions on U.S. student achievement, Dr. Domaleski concludes that it falls short of providing a framework for understanding why these trends exist.

Find the review, by Chris Domaleski, at:

https://www.greatlakescenter.org

Find Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends , written by Nat Malkus and published by American Enterprise Institute, at:

https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/testing-theories-of-why-four-keys-to-interpreting-us-student-achievement-trends/

NEPC Reviews ( https://nepc.colorado.edu/reviews ) provide the public, policymakers, and the press with timely, academically sound reviews of selected publications. NEPC Reviews are made possible in part by support provided by the Great Lakes Center for Education Research and Practice: https://www.greatlakescenter.org

Chris Domaleski

(603) 516-7900

cdomaleski@nciea.org