Review of NEPC Review: Estimating the LongRun Impact of a Universal ESA Program in Mississippi

Key Takeaway: Methodological errors and flawed assumptions undermine claims by EdChoice about the long-term economic benefits of Education Savings Accounts.

GRAND RAPIDS, MI (FEBRUARY 24, 2026) - A recent report from EdChoice estimates the long-term economic returns of a universal education savings account (ESA) policy in Mississippi. ESA policies provide taxpayer dollars to households that decline to send their children to public schools, allowing those funds to be used for private school tuition or other educational expenses. As ESAs and similar school choice programs expand rapidly across the country, rigorous research is essential to inform sound, evidence-based policymaking.

Although the EdChoice report attempts to measure the long-term economic benefits of a universal ESA, it contains significant methodological errors, questionable assumptions, and misleading conclusions. University of Washington professor David S. Knight reviewed Estimating the Long-Run Impact of a Universal ESA Program in Mississippi and found it offers limited value for informing sound public policy.

The report bases its projections on evaluations of programs that are not universal ESA models; the programs included in the analyses have substantially different fiscal approaches, including conventional vouchers and approaches that use tax-credits to fund the private-school subsidies. The report also overstates projected benefits while omitting a meaningful analysis of program costs, despite extensive evidence that such initiatives require significant state expenditures. By omitting these costs and relying on dissimilar policy models, the report presents an incomplete and potentially distorted view of the policy’s fiscal and economic impact.

As a result, Professor Knight concludes, the report risks misleading state leaders about how best to invest limited education dollars. Any lawmaker treating this report as definitive evidence for advancing a universal ESA proposal risks undermining what should be an informed, evidence-based debate. Legislators should instead examine the broader body of independent research.

Find the review, written by David S. Knight, at:

https://www.greatlakescenter.org .

Find Estimating the Long-Run Impact of a Universal ESA Program in Mississippi , authored by Martin Lueken and Michael Q. McShane and published by EdChoice, at: https://www.greatlakescenter.org

NEPC Reviews ( https://nepc.colorado.edu/reviews ) provide the public, policymakers, and the press with timely, academically sound reviews of selected publications. NEPC Reviews are made possible in part by support provided by the Great Lakes Center for Education Research and Practice: https://www.greatlakescenter.org .

The mission of the Great Lakes Center for Education Research & Practice is to support and disseminate high-quality research and reviews of research for the purpose of informing education policy and to develop research-based resources for use by those who advocate for education reform.

Visit the Great Lakes Center website at GreatLakesCenter.org

Contacts

Michelle Renee Valladares

David S. Knight